BBC and others report that "Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian has backed calls for a referendum on independence" and China's swift and stern warning against the independence. Stanley Chan argues that because US lacks the political will for the defense of Taiwan, China with its resolute aim can overrun Taiwan eventually.

However plausible this analysis may be, there are a few unasked questions:

• What about Taiwanese people's desire for self-determination? Will they fight to the bitter end? Or will they surrender to save themselves and their prosperity?
• Current US opposition to Taiwanese independence stems from its desire to maintain the status quo - will US tolerate any attempt to change it?
• In case China fails in its military or political campaign to take over Taiwan, can it handle other secessionists? "First Taiwan, then Xinjiang, then Tibet, then ..."